I mean, theoretically, yes.

I mean, it could be that some guy in his basement has been working on it in total secrecy and it shows up tomorrow.

But my guess is that the likely timeline is further out than either.

I seriously doubt that what we’re going to see is a single “Eureka” moment that gives us both AGI and manages to greatly surpass humans.

I would expect to see a more-incremental process, where publicly-visible systems get closer and closer to approaching that. And what OpenAI and friends are doing isn’t close. It’s cool, is useful for a lot of things, but isn’t a generalized system for solving problems.