At the very least, a strong majority of russians are supporters of genocidal imperialism, however a solid argument could be made that it’s more like an overwhelming majority.
This holds true across all demographic segments; income, education, age, region, rural vs urban. You may have a situation where the support for genocidal imperialism is a mere majority (e.g. younger cohorts), while others approach an almost absolute majority (older cohorts), but the majority always holds no matter how you slice and dice it.
This is backed by almost all quantitative and qualitative research conducted over past ~35 years. I can share a pretty funny anecdote about how an allegedly opposition minded russian (who gets quoted in the NYT) had to twist his own quantitative findings to present a better picture of russian society.
Even recent qualitative research run by opposition minded russian researchers shows a damning picture among of even allegedly moderate russians (in russian, I can share it).
A strong majority of everyday russian support the extermination of Ukrainian culture and sending everyone who disagrees to a torture camp. And this is not limited to Ukraine, they have a similar attitude to all nations that freed themselves from cancer that was the USSR.
Unfortunately many are ignorant of the nature of russian society or prefer to reject difficult information (it’s just social media hate).
Torvalds is a Finn and he understand these things and he doesn’t have the liberty of shying away from reality.
When compare “Fuck Russians” to “Fuck Jews”; what exactly are you referring to? Russian as in the ethnicity or Russian as in the nationality. This is actually a pretty important point.
I specially provided a selection of lesser know research to avoid the usual arguments about “but how can you do polling in a totalitarian state”.
Turns out, you can. And the findings show that preference falsification (e.g. a russian saying that they support the invasion of Ukraine, when they really don’t) is minor and does not change the real picture; that at the very least a strong majority of russians are genocidal imperialists.
I didn’t say a lot of people don’t support it. But that’d be in parity with a lot of Americans supporting invasion of Iraq or Israel’s crimes. Which makes them similar genocidal imperialists. So genocidal imperialism is normal in your “civilized world”, you are doing it.
That injustice would be responsible, by the way, for a certain percentage of people answering something not because they support the war, but because they hate all those virtue-signaling jerks who support many other wars which go unpunished, with those jerks also residing in states where their political position doesn’t cost them fines or jail. I don’t like hypocrisy as well.
And it’s funny, another guy just talked about “apathetic stance”, and you now talk about “totalitarian state”, and both are used to blame Russians, while they are mutually contradictory. If a state is totalitarian, then any stance taken without a suicide belt (and most taken with it) doesn’t give you any immediate results. And it is.
I’m not going to argue that the majority of neurotypical people will support a war their state starts. If you are from the USA, yours did with much bigger euphoria than Russians in 2022.
This is pretty tired whataboutism w.r.t US and Iraq.
The Iraq equivalent would be American annexing Basra state, banned arabic and forcing everyone to speak with a Texan accent and eat pork chops.
All the while sending Arabic speaker to dungeons and having state TV with goons laughing about how they caught a local Iraq women speaking Arabic and sent her to a dungeon.
What bloody “equivalent”? I’m talking about literal US invasion of Iraq which has killed more Iraqis than Russia has Ukrainians in the same amount of time.
They don’t call it an invasion in your land of the free? Or they really think that was normal and somehow different from 2022-now?
But we can do Iraq for your analogy too. When Saddam invaded Iran with pretty land-grabbing nationalist goals, they’d do a lot of fucked up shit of this kind, and they were supported by the West. Iranians have fought back, and that’s why despite hating the Islamic regime, they have no illusions about the West too.
I want to ask you another thing - do you realize that the mafia group in control of Russia got to the point of no opposition and ability to invade, for example, Ukraine, because from the very beginning it was supported by the West against democratic forces in Russia?
Yeltsin’s coup in 1993 was supported by the West. Oh, yes, his opponents were very scary, some “red-brown” mix of goosestepping neo-Nazis and Stalinists. But there’s one little problem - those obviously unpleasant people would refrain from violence and try to solve the crisis via peaceful means till the very storming of parliament (where they were, ahem, the majority).
Probably half of the Russian elites have emigrated to Western countries by now with their stolen money ; were that process not as welcome from the receiving countries, maybe it wouldn’t be their main goal, and maybe that would have lead to an environment where Russia’s elites can possibly change.
For you, extermination of Ukrainian identity in the occupied territories is OK. For me it’s not.
And at any rate, I don’t buy your “whataboutism” about Iraq. You don’t care about killed Iraqi civilians just you like you don’t care about Ukrainiains killed by Russians.
I want to ask you another thing - do you realize that the mafia group in control of Russia got to the point of no opposition and ability to invade, for example, Ukraine, because from the very beginning it was supported by the West against democratic forces in Russia?
No, I do not believe in russian victimhood narratives.
Talking to many, many Russians on the ground, I certainly don’t see the picture you’re presenting. The absolute majority of Russian youth I know is anti-war and anti-Putin, with only a few exceptions; among older generations there is more support for Putin, but it often boils down to “who else can keep Russia from crumbling in these trying times?” - a flawed argument, but again, not coming from bloodlust or an appetite for war. Maintaining of the war is seen by them as more of a necessity, and victory as a condition to save the country from collapse.
Even the government tries to veil it into “we’re against the Nazi regime of Ukraine, not against Ukrainians”, because Ukrainians are absolutely seen as brotherly people, and the fact they die is tragic to most. The blatant “let’s kill Ukrainian pigs” position is seen as cringe at best, and is likely to call a punch in the face.
Fair point on ethnicity vs nationality, thanks, and I’d like to explore it. Whenever the matter of Russians comes up, people rarely make the distinction. For example, when I commented on ethnic Russians getting more access to their own culture in Latvia thanks to EU intervention and acceptance of Russians as an ethnic minority, people made little distinction between ethnic Russians (including kindergarten kids who just happened to be born to two Russians) and Russian soldiers on the battlefield, ready to conquer the country.
But here, really, it doesn’t alter my point. We shouldn’t say “fuck all Israelis” either, because they too are a diverse group of people with vastly different views - some of them are straight up Arabs, and among the Israeli Jews, opinions on the war vary strongly.
The last two russians that I still speak to are genuinely anti-putin and support Ukraine. Does that mean this is true of all russians or does that mean there something about who I choose to speak to bringing about such a result?
You claim they are “anti-war” and yet you talk about " war is seen by them as more of a necessity". You are either anti-war or you’re not. A strong majority (if not an overwhelming majority) are pro war. You’re defacto whitewashing russian genocidal imperialism.
When it comes down to it, the majority of russians support extermination of Ukrainian culture, language and identity (and torturing everyone who doesn’t agree).
The brotherly people bla bla is just an example of russian supremacists’ thinking. This “brotherly people” pitch clearly does not include self-determination or the right to develop your own culture (and getting rid of settler colonialism). It fails if you bring up something like reparations (even among allegedly liberal minded russians). The “brotherly people” pitch is a ruse for the ignorant and naive.
Don’t fucking lie about “the fact they [Ukrainians] die is tragic to most”. This is really fucking low on your part. The majority of the country (at any reasonable level of sociological segmentation) openly supports genocidal imperialism against Ukraine and other countries. A small minority might be somewhat ambivalent but generally sees it as a fair sacrifice for their comfort.
It’s funny that you bring up russian colonial settlers in Latvia. Even with access to free media, democratic institutions, economic growth, among russians in Latvia support for Russian/Ukrainian victory roughly evenly split (although majority claim to not know which country they support). The Latvian most definitely should be very careful
I’ve never lived in Israel/Palestine and I don’t speak Arabic or Hebrew.
I have lived in Russia for over a decade (I can tell some funny, almost absurdist, encounters with russian racism) and I speak fluent russian. It is reasonable to claim that an overwhelming majority of russians are genocidal imperialists.
And I am not saying they would openly admit to it. But if you know how to ask questions (in russian) in a subtle way, you can see that their worldview is supremacist and aligns with the extermination of the culture of neighbouring nations and forcing them to be become subservient to the russian national identity.
The second URL is in russian. A fascinating read. You should send to one of your anti-war younger russians.
You can easily do a web search confirming from multiple research groups that a strong majority of russians support the invasion of Ukraine and the destruction of its culture. I shared some lesser known research that provides counter arguments to the usual low effort russian whitewashing with respect to sociological research.
No, I’ve put “war as a necessity” group separate from “anti-war”.
Through the virtue of being Russo-Ukrainian (and currently residing in Russia) I constantly speak to people of very wide backgrounds, and I listen to conversations around.
There are people who are generally speaking of exterminating Ukraine, putting Z signs on the vehicles etc., but there aren’t that many of them.
There are some that want to restore “Slavic world”, and many more that talk about “saving Russia”, which is certainly imperialist and serving Putin’s agenda, but not aimed at exterminating Ukrainians per se (and having close Ukrainian roots and many relatives under rocket strikes, I am very sensitive to the narrative of destroying culture or people, my culture and my people, so I notice when it happens).
And there is a majority of people I know, people that are opposed to war, some mildly and mostly out of care for their families, some strongly and coming from something more. Most of them have something to lose, and even those who previously protested now can’t risk that, because regime got way more brutal. They literally don’t know what to do. I don’t know what to do while my close ones are in danger.
Colonial settlers? Latvian Russians are the kids and grandkids of those who moved there back when this was seen as yet another region. These people never chose to be born in Latvia, but so is their home, and they happen to be Russians. People of any ethnicity in any country should have access to their culture; this is one of the basic rights everyone should have. No exceptions.
As you can guess from previous paragraphs, I speak Russian fluently as well, только при этом я здесь живу по сей день и могу оценить, как дела обстоят на самом деле и что думают обычные люди. Местами в регионах это совпадает с зарисовками, опубликованными Медузой, но в целом я вижу больше разговоров и об украинцах, хотя очень часто исподтишка, невзначай, как вот про “украинских ребят” из той же зарисовки. It’s hard to openly protest and voice open dissent, though.
On the sources:
1.Clearly states that the only relevant result is that Russians do indeed hide their dissent, and estimates may be wrong even when asking indirectly, and are certainly skewed with direct answers.
2.Quite an interesting read, though there’s mainly one true and important takeaway: many Russians, especially in the small regions that have always lived a slow life, face inability to protest it openly, end up growing frustrated and escape long discussions of the war. This is commonly known as “getting tired” of it, but there is a deeper level to it.
3.Sources info from article 1 and misinterprets it.
The problem is, the research you provided only confirms that there is an issue of hiding true opinions, without definitively stating wide support. A list method employed not only doesn’t guarantee honest answers (just makes them more likely), it also has plenty of inaccuracies of its own, as it brings about many contentious things people could agree or disagree on.
There’s one thing we have in common - we want this war to end. You, probably for overall peace in the world, me, because my close ones are in danger, hiding from mobilization, living with intermittent electricity, not knowing what tomorrow is gonna bring, and also for global peace, of course. But seeing how it unfolds in Russia, how russophobia channels and feeds into Russian nationalism - something that can easily be weaponized - I really don’t think this is the answer. Russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now, they don’t need someone to tell them to go figure this out, and if there is a way to support any anti-war effort inside Russia, this will go a much longer way than animosity and rejection based on where they happen to be.
And I don’t buy your claim that everyone is “anti-war” and a small minority believes that “war is a necessity”. Your anecdotal experience is not really relevant when we have qualitative, quantitative research and reality (that russian have been directly occupying three nations since the USSR broke up - is this not fucking imperialism).
There are people who are generally speaking of exterminating Ukraine, putting Z signs on the vehicles etc., but there aren’t that many of them.
As I wrote earlier, it’s not only an issue with those who openly express their genocidal imperialism (and there are tens of millions of such adults). It’s also those who doesn’t see a big problem or think it’s a fair sacrifice that works for them. Such people are just as bad and their actions lead to the same outcomes.
“but not aimed at exterminating Ukrainians per se”.
This is just white-washing russian genocidal intent. Your “restore the slavic world” fellows know full well that russia is doing everything possible to exterminate Ukrainian culture (not to mention torturing tens of thousands of civilians and terrorizing millions). They all know it and they all support it.
And there is a majority of people I know, people that are opposed to war. Most of them have something to lose, and even those who previously protested now can’t risk that, because regime got way more brutal. They literally don’t know what to do. I don’t know what to do while my close ones are in danger.
The overwhelming majority supported the annexation of Crimea (80-85%), the occupation of Donbass and the full scale invasion. Same with the 2008 invasion of Georgia. And yet you bring the people you know?
For Latvia to be their home, they would need to learn Latvian language and be part of Latvian culture as opposed to supporting Putin and imperialism more broadly. You can’t call a place your home when your loyalties lie to a regime that wants to destroy the country you allegedly call home.
What an interesting interpretation of the first paper. It pretty clearly states that preference falsification is at around 10% with support for the full scale invasion going from 75% (direct polling) to 65% (list experiment).
“the research you provided only confirms that there is an issue of hiding true opinions, without definitively stating wide support.”
This is complete bullshit that directly contradicts the findings of the paper. The authors even explicitly state that due to their methodology they believe that the true level of support is higher than 65% even when accounting for preference falsification.
List experiments have issues, any methodology does. But when multiple quantitative methodologies and qualitative research show the same findings, you can’t just bring up “plenty of inaccuracies of its own”.
Did we read the same paper? It’s a pretty damning picture of even those who are not aggressively pro-imperialist genocide. I don’t see what getting tired or not getting has to do with anything. They still support the russian army (that send cruise missiles into children’s cancer hospitals) and in principle they are OK with killings and destruction as long as it benefits them.
There’s one thing we have in common - we want this war to end. You, probably for overall peace in the world, me, because my close ones are in danger, and also for global peace, of course. But seeing how it unfolds in Russia, how russophobia channels and feeds into Russian nationalism - something that can easily be weaponized - I really don’t think this is the answer. Russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now, and if we can influence them in a friendly way, we should, because animosity clearly doesn’t help.
This is great example of supremacist russian thinking. It perfect aligns with notion that a strong majority of russians are genocidal imperialist (while not necessarily open stating this).
Let me translate:
“We want to keep 20% of Ukraine [and attack again later], because of “world peace”, we all want “world peace”, right?”
“Show respect to us russians, this is nothing. If you don’t show us respect we will fuck you up!”
“Russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now” - Typical russian victimhood. They are always the victims in any situation!
“and if we can influence them in a friendly way, we should, because animosity clearly doesn’t help” - There is not a single example in recent history of russians doing any type of good faith actions in the geopolitical sphere. On the contrary, a recognition that a strong majority of russians are genocidal imperialists, that they do not believe in human rights (beyond using the concept for manipulation and lies) and they support authoritarianism (in their own country, but in others too) is the only way forward.
Authors clearly stated that the result can be inaccurate and some percentage of Russians may not answer honestly even under such conditions, and in conclusions, they only ended up confirming some people do seemingly hide their true opinions (although the extent of it may vary as the studied group was not representative of entire Russian population and was taken from Toloka, a place attracting specific demographic not fully representative of general Russian population).
It sure is important to know Latvian language, but for that they already have Latvian language tests for those coming into Latvian citizenship. They can, however, hold any culture they want, while respecting Latvian law and basic customs. Same applies to anyone anywhere, including any minorities of Russia or Ukraine. In any case, trying to erase Russian identity is not the answer, which is obvious to legislators outside the country.
Did I say anything about borders? You literally made this up. When I say I want peace, honestly, I don’t give a single damn where the border will be - where it is now, or where it has originally been, or anything in between. I want for two countries, both of which are my homes, mind you, to stop putting their men in the meat grinder. And I know plenty of people on both sides of the Russo-Ukrainian frontline share my sentiment.
But attacking Russians on the Internet and excluding them from everywhere further radicalizes them, leaves them bitter to the outside world, which can lead them to believe y’all really are the enemies to fight against. By alienating Russians, such people just feed into Putin’s narrative that the world is full of hostiles. This has nothing to do with victimhood or imperialism - this is basic human psychology, and it would work exactly the same anywhere else.
I strongly wish Russian aggression would stop, I care for it with all my heart. Again, my close ones are in fear of an attack as we speak. But I also happen to see the perspective of everyday Russians - something that most of those judging never get to see or even consider, naively thinking that they are the “punishers” for incorrect behavior, and that more of that will lead to a “child” getting to learn good behavior. No - slowly, but surely you simply raise bitterness and become an enemy. And they won’t get themselves to blame, and they will march with their wraith. Not on you. On my people. My grandmother. My uncle. My brother. His wife. I could just never talk about those things, present myself as a Ukrainian (after all, I am one) and go about my life, but too much is at stake for me to stay silent when y’all are doing the stupidest shit you can.
You’re lying about the authors conclusions. They explicitly stated that the support was higher than 65% due to their methodology. And they did clearly state that preference falsification is a mere ~10%. Therefore their research (like any quantitative research on this topic) supports my statement that the majority of russians are genocidal imperialists as they want to conquer Ukraine and destroy Ukrainian identity.
No, they need to learn the Latvian language at a high level if they want to live there. This is basic component of calling a place your home. You have to some loyalty to your country and not support a genocidal enemy. The fact that russian culture is at least on some level defined by genocidal imperialism is not a problem of the Latvians. This is basic stuff.
Ukraine is not your home. You are a russian, no Ukrainian would try to come up with “war is necessity” word salad or your comical “russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now”. So don’t lie!
You don’t care about borders because you don’t care about the ten of thousands of civilians in russian torture dungeons. We also both know that vast majority of russians are not interested in any kind of real peace. Just like in 2014, the goal is to get some breathing room, then attacks and try and get more territory and exterminate Ukrainian culture in the newly occupied territories. This approach is nearly universally known and (silently) supported by a strong majority of russians.
GTFO with your “on my people”. You defend russian imperialism and colonialism and you dare to imply you have some relation to Ukraine?
Victimhood is a defining element of russian culture. Without it there is no russian “culture”. Conspiracy theories blaming foreign countries for any and all ills are extremely prevalent in russian society. This has been true in the past, this is true today and it will be true in the future.
I don’t understand what you mean by your “punisher” sentence. The vast majority russians already blame everyone but themselves for all their problems. You brought up russophobia as an implicit excuse for russian crimes. Russophobia doesn’t really exist. When a society consist of a strong majority of genocidal imperialists that lack empathy, it is reasonable to see that society as a threat and a problem. This is not rocket science.
Have you ever seen a well known russian (outside a few figures like Novodvorskaya) admit that at least part of the problem lies in russian society at large? I think not … because we both know the role of victimhood among russians.
To develop a russia strategy that works, the world needs to understand that russians will never act in good faith, russians will always play the victim and a strong majority of russians are committed and genuine ethno-racial supremacists that lack empathy.
Alienating russians is a red herring. The only way forward is a sober view of russian culture and methods and an understanding that russia only understand force; you have to treat them like they treat others.
Even if that were true (which is not, read the damn conclusions section), this doesn’t support your emotional notion. And as much as I’d like to share such a simple outrage, it’s not helpful.
It would be weird to see all Russians born in Latvia only support Latvian side of things, just as it would be weird to see each and every Latvian born in Russia supporting Russia.
I never said I see war as necessary, I say many of the people that can be defined as pro-war are not for it because they want to see Ukrainians gone. I personally am anti-war and I call for peace through whatever means necessary, because - surprise surprise - I care about people’s lives and you seemingly don’t. It is curently you who calls for brute force solutions.
And you trying to say my ethnicity is not valid is laughable. Oh yeah, gonna be unborn to my Ukrainian father and forget my entire Ukrainian bloodline. Maybe your cultural shock at facing a Ukrainian who doesn’t immediately call to destroy all Russians is your problem? Then go around and maybe talk to some outside political circlejerks.
Russian culture is independent and beautiful, not defined by anything in particular - just as Ukrainian. You trying to minimize it to “victimhood” or even politics more broadly is an insult to everything good the country has produced - and there is plenty.
The perfect scenario I see is peace talks, and then Ukraine joining NATO. There are talks on the NATO side, but they require Ukraine to leave the current war first. I do think this is the best way forward, as Russian security guarantees are proven not to be trusted.
Seeing any national or ethnic group as “inherently dangerous” is nothing but a way to more abuse, and a common justification for imperialist wars, too. There is no such society in Russia, and seeing it this way is an issue of your perception. But regardless, make peace talks and then invite Ukraine to NATO. Problem solved.
The term I used was “genocidal imperialist”. Supporting extermination of Ukrainiain culture, language and identity with the goal of territorial expansion. A belief in ethno-national hierarchy system that sees certain ethnicities/nationalities as inferior and not having the right to self-determination.
Such beliefs have a strong majority support among the russian population (if not overwhelming majority support).
For you these are cartoons for adults. For those who have deal with russian imperialism, it’s reality.
A tangent of sorts; do you think you would be able to guess the number genocides conducted by the russians since just in the last 100 years? Without doing a web search.
You might be able to count the big ones, but I am curious what do you think your chance of guessing correctly would be?
Note: I don’t know the exact number (I can name a list of course). I am just curious what you think about this thought experiment.
To get to a solution, you need to at least recognize the problem. Things like not engaging in historical revisionism. Not rejecting any and all research findings unless they paint russian society in a way that reflects how you want the world to be.
No I don’t think I would. Other than my ignorance about the facts themselves, there’s the issue that I don’t have a precise definition of genocide in mind.
I’d probably have the best chance by saying 0 and hoping the definition of Genocide is so narrow it doesn’t really apply to shit.
And I’d give me a 30% chance.
Tangent asides, I am under no impression that the Russian Oligarchy now, the Zar before, the URRS in between, has excerted power in oppressive way just like any other country has done and stopped doing only in the face of new ways to accrue power.
And because in all those instances, from China, to the USA, to all of Europe, through history, people were pushed and pulled into believing all sort of crazy stuff, such as “the others” being inferior, evil, a threat or all of the above, I doesn’t really tell me much that the polupation that is subjected to a long lasting propaganda apparatus is affected by such propaganda.
I go as far as doubting I would be able to see past it if myself I was born in that situation.
The definition of genocide is an interesting one. I have a DIY definition that may not be listed in the human rights charts, but has what I would argue a rather lucid quality to it.
“Actions against you specifically, your immediate and extended family and your broader ethno-national group that make you wonder if the russians want to destroy you.”
On some level, I do agree with what you’re saying about the role of oppression and propaganda.
But how do you know this is the primary cause? What if it’s a choice the russians want to make?
It’s unfortunately not unheard of for whole nations (i.e. close to or at overwhelming majority support level) to support and engage in genocidal imperialism. Arguably, one would only continue at this path if they have the benefit of people white-washing their actions, no?
The reason I brought up choice earlier is that I do not believe russians are “inherently” genocidal or that they are not capable of change. This would be a ridiculous argument. I do believe that they do want to change, they like being genocidal imperialists.
And they will continue to do so until there is pushback (they get treated like they treat others) and less people buy into their white-washing propaganda.
Framed in this way (assuming a population completely corrupted by propaganda) it becomes a matter of responsibility, not unlike what we already faced in germany.
I believe the proper course of action, in this instance and for posterity alike, is focusing and who is knowingly engaging in propaganda, and not who is being fed a false narrative.
It’s a broad answer and it leaves very little room for proportionate retaliation, but it’s the only approach, I believe, that foster progress and rightfully frame the issue of division and conflict in a tangible cause and effect dialectic.
If we now say, “Russian has let themselves be convinced to behave like monsters, therefore we must tread them as ones”, all future wars can and will be framed in this way. If we focus and the root causes, if we condemn manipulation of information, uneven education as among the greatest, most unacceptable, criminal act, I can see a world where at the very least, if you behave like a monster that’s out of your own “disposition”.
At the very least, a strong majority of russians are supporters of genocidal imperialism, however a solid argument could be made that it’s more like an overwhelming majority.
This holds true across all demographic segments; income, education, age, region, rural vs urban. You may have a situation where the support for genocidal imperialism is a mere majority (e.g. younger cohorts), while others approach an almost absolute majority (older cohorts), but the majority always holds no matter how you slice and dice it.
This is backed by almost all quantitative and qualitative research conducted over past ~35 years. I can share a pretty funny anecdote about how an allegedly opposition minded russian (who gets quoted in the NYT) had to twist his own quantitative findings to present a better picture of russian society.
Even recent qualitative research run by opposition minded russian researchers shows a damning picture among of even allegedly moderate russians (in russian, I can share it).
A strong majority of everyday russian support the extermination of Ukrainian culture and sending everyone who disagrees to a torture camp. And this is not limited to Ukraine, they have a similar attitude to all nations that freed themselves from cancer that was the USSR.
Unfortunately many are ignorant of the nature of russian society or prefer to reject difficult information (it’s just social media hate).
Torvalds is a Finn and he understand these things and he doesn’t have the liberty of shying away from reality.
When compare “Fuck Russians” to “Fuck Jews”; what exactly are you referring to? Russian as in the ethnicity or Russian as in the nationality. This is actually a pretty important point.
I would require some data from a person who likely wouldn’t say the same about countries backing Turkey (and by extension Azerbaijan) and Israel.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20531680221108328 https://meduza.io/feature/2024/06/25/a-kogda-uzhe-pobeda-to-nasha-budet https://www.jiia.or.jp/en/column/2022/09/russia-fy2022-01.html
I specially provided a selection of lesser know research to avoid the usual arguments about “but how can you do polling in a totalitarian state”.
Turns out, you can. And the findings show that preference falsification (e.g. a russian saying that they support the invasion of Ukraine, when they really don’t) is minor and does not change the real picture; that at the very least a strong majority of russians are genocidal imperialists.
I didn’t say a lot of people don’t support it. But that’d be in parity with a lot of Americans supporting invasion of Iraq or Israel’s crimes. Which makes them similar genocidal imperialists. So genocidal imperialism is normal in your “civilized world”, you are doing it.
That injustice would be responsible, by the way, for a certain percentage of people answering something not because they support the war, but because they hate all those virtue-signaling jerks who support many other wars which go unpunished, with those jerks also residing in states where their political position doesn’t cost them fines or jail. I don’t like hypocrisy as well.
And it’s funny, another guy just talked about “apathetic stance”, and you now talk about “totalitarian state”, and both are used to blame Russians, while they are mutually contradictory. If a state is totalitarian, then any stance taken without a suicide belt (and most taken with it) doesn’t give you any immediate results. And it is.
I’m not going to argue that the majority of neurotypical people will support a war their state starts. If you are from the USA, yours did with much bigger euphoria than Russians in 2022.
This is pretty tired whataboutism w.r.t US and Iraq.
The Iraq equivalent would be American annexing Basra state, banned arabic and forcing everyone to speak with a Texan accent and eat pork chops.
All the while sending Arabic speaker to dungeons and having state TV with goons laughing about how they caught a local Iraq women speaking Arabic and sent her to a dungeon.
What bloody “equivalent”? I’m talking about literal US invasion of Iraq which has killed more Iraqis than Russia has Ukrainians in the same amount of time.
They don’t call it an invasion in your land of the free? Or they really think that was normal and somehow different from 2022-now?
But we can do Iraq for your analogy too. When Saddam invaded Iran with pretty land-grabbing nationalist goals, they’d do a lot of fucked up shit of this kind, and they were supported by the West. Iranians have fought back, and that’s why despite hating the Islamic regime, they have no illusions about the West too.
I want to ask you another thing - do you realize that the mafia group in control of Russia got to the point of no opposition and ability to invade, for example, Ukraine, because from the very beginning it was supported by the West against democratic forces in Russia?
Yeltsin’s coup in 1993 was supported by the West. Oh, yes, his opponents were very scary, some “red-brown” mix of goosestepping neo-Nazis and Stalinists. But there’s one little problem - those obviously unpleasant people would refrain from violence and try to solve the crisis via peaceful means till the very storming of parliament (where they were, ahem, the majority).
Probably half of the Russian elites have emigrated to Western countries by now with their stolen money ; were that process not as welcome from the receiving countries, maybe it wouldn’t be their main goal, and maybe that would have lead to an environment where Russia’s elites can possibly change.
For you, extermination of Ukrainian identity in the occupied territories is OK. For me it’s not.
And at any rate, I don’t buy your “whataboutism” about Iraq. You don’t care about killed Iraqi civilians just you like you don’t care about Ukrainiains killed by Russians.
No, I do not believe in russian victimhood narratives.
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I wonder what your sources are, yes.
Talking to many, many Russians on the ground, I certainly don’t see the picture you’re presenting. The absolute majority of Russian youth I know is anti-war and anti-Putin, with only a few exceptions; among older generations there is more support for Putin, but it often boils down to “who else can keep Russia from crumbling in these trying times?” - a flawed argument, but again, not coming from bloodlust or an appetite for war. Maintaining of the war is seen by them as more of a necessity, and victory as a condition to save the country from collapse.
Even the government tries to veil it into “we’re against the Nazi regime of Ukraine, not against Ukrainians”, because Ukrainians are absolutely seen as brotherly people, and the fact they die is tragic to most. The blatant “let’s kill Ukrainian pigs” position is seen as cringe at best, and is likely to call a punch in the face.
Fair point on ethnicity vs nationality, thanks, and I’d like to explore it. Whenever the matter of Russians comes up, people rarely make the distinction. For example, when I commented on ethnic Russians getting more access to their own culture in Latvia thanks to EU intervention and acceptance of Russians as an ethnic minority, people made little distinction between ethnic Russians (including kindergarten kids who just happened to be born to two Russians) and Russian soldiers on the battlefield, ready to conquer the country.
But here, really, it doesn’t alter my point. We shouldn’t say “fuck all Israelis” either, because they too are a diverse group of people with vastly different views - some of them are straight up Arabs, and among the Israeli Jews, opinions on the war vary strongly.
The last two russians that I still speak to are genuinely anti-putin and support Ukraine. Does that mean this is true of all russians or does that mean there something about who I choose to speak to bringing about such a result?
You claim they are “anti-war” and yet you talk about " war is seen by them as more of a necessity". You are either anti-war or you’re not. A strong majority (if not an overwhelming majority) are pro war. You’re defacto whitewashing russian genocidal imperialism.
When it comes down to it, the majority of russians support extermination of Ukrainian culture, language and identity (and torturing everyone who doesn’t agree).
The brotherly people bla bla is just an example of russian supremacists’ thinking. This “brotherly people” pitch clearly does not include self-determination or the right to develop your own culture (and getting rid of settler colonialism). It fails if you bring up something like reparations (even among allegedly liberal minded russians). The “brotherly people” pitch is a ruse for the ignorant and naive.
Don’t fucking lie about “the fact they [Ukrainians] die is tragic to most”. This is really fucking low on your part. The majority of the country (at any reasonable level of sociological segmentation) openly supports genocidal imperialism against Ukraine and other countries. A small minority might be somewhat ambivalent but generally sees it as a fair sacrifice for their comfort.
It’s funny that you bring up russian colonial settlers in Latvia. Even with access to free media, democratic institutions, economic growth, among russians in Latvia support for Russian/Ukrainian victory roughly evenly split (although majority claim to not know which country they support). The Latvian most definitely should be very careful
I’ve never lived in Israel/Palestine and I don’t speak Arabic or Hebrew.
I have lived in Russia for over a decade (I can tell some funny, almost absurdist, encounters with russian racism) and I speak fluent russian. It is reasonable to claim that an overwhelming majority of russians are genocidal imperialists.
And I am not saying they would openly admit to it. But if you know how to ask questions (in russian) in a subtle way, you can see that their worldview is supremacist and aligns with the extermination of the culture of neighbouring nations and forcing them to be become subservient to the russian national identity.
Random selection of lesser know research:
-https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20531680221108328 -https://meduza.io/feature/2024/06/25/a-kogda-uzhe-pobeda-to-nasha-budet -https://www.jiia.or.jp/en/column/2022/09/russia-fy2022-01.html
The second URL is in russian. A fascinating read. You should send to one of your anti-war younger russians.
You can easily do a web search confirming from multiple research groups that a strong majority of russians support the invasion of Ukraine and the destruction of its culture. I shared some lesser known research that provides counter arguments to the usual low effort russian whitewashing with respect to sociological research.
No, I’ve put “war as a necessity” group separate from “anti-war”.
Through the virtue of being Russo-Ukrainian (and currently residing in Russia) I constantly speak to people of very wide backgrounds, and I listen to conversations around.
There are people who are generally speaking of exterminating Ukraine, putting Z signs on the vehicles etc., but there aren’t that many of them.
There are some that want to restore “Slavic world”, and many more that talk about “saving Russia”, which is certainly imperialist and serving Putin’s agenda, but not aimed at exterminating Ukrainians per se (and having close Ukrainian roots and many relatives under rocket strikes, I am very sensitive to the narrative of destroying culture or people, my culture and my people, so I notice when it happens).
And there is a majority of people I know, people that are opposed to war, some mildly and mostly out of care for their families, some strongly and coming from something more. Most of them have something to lose, and even those who previously protested now can’t risk that, because regime got way more brutal. They literally don’t know what to do. I don’t know what to do while my close ones are in danger.
Colonial settlers? Latvian Russians are the kids and grandkids of those who moved there back when this was seen as yet another region. These people never chose to be born in Latvia, but so is their home, and they happen to be Russians. People of any ethnicity in any country should have access to their culture; this is one of the basic rights everyone should have. No exceptions.
As you can guess from previous paragraphs, I speak Russian fluently as well, только при этом я здесь живу по сей день и могу оценить, как дела обстоят на самом деле и что думают обычные люди. Местами в регионах это совпадает с зарисовками, опубликованными Медузой, но в целом я вижу больше разговоров и об украинцах, хотя очень часто исподтишка, невзначай, как вот про “украинских ребят” из той же зарисовки. It’s hard to openly protest and voice open dissent, though.
On the sources: 1.Clearly states that the only relevant result is that Russians do indeed hide their dissent, and estimates may be wrong even when asking indirectly, and are certainly skewed with direct answers. 2.Quite an interesting read, though there’s mainly one true and important takeaway: many Russians, especially in the small regions that have always lived a slow life, face inability to protest it openly, end up growing frustrated and escape long discussions of the war. This is commonly known as “getting tired” of it, but there is a deeper level to it. 3.Sources info from article 1 and misinterprets it.
The problem is, the research you provided only confirms that there is an issue of hiding true opinions, without definitively stating wide support. A list method employed not only doesn’t guarantee honest answers (just makes them more likely), it also has plenty of inaccuracies of its own, as it brings about many contentious things people could agree or disagree on.
There’s one thing we have in common - we want this war to end. You, probably for overall peace in the world, me, because my close ones are in danger, hiding from mobilization, living with intermittent electricity, not knowing what tomorrow is gonna bring, and also for global peace, of course. But seeing how it unfolds in Russia, how russophobia channels and feeds into Russian nationalism - something that can easily be weaponized - I really don’t think this is the answer. Russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now, they don’t need someone to tell them to go figure this out, and if there is a way to support any anti-war effort inside Russia, this will go a much longer way than animosity and rejection based on where they happen to be.
And I don’t buy your claim that everyone is “anti-war” and a small minority believes that “war is a necessity”. Your anecdotal experience is not really relevant when we have qualitative, quantitative research and reality (that russian have been directly occupying three nations since the USSR broke up - is this not fucking imperialism).
As I wrote earlier, it’s not only an issue with those who openly express their genocidal imperialism (and there are tens of millions of such adults). It’s also those who doesn’t see a big problem or think it’s a fair sacrifice that works for them. Such people are just as bad and their actions lead to the same outcomes.
This is just white-washing russian genocidal intent. Your “restore the slavic world” fellows know full well that russia is doing everything possible to exterminate Ukrainian culture (not to mention torturing tens of thousands of civilians and terrorizing millions). They all know it and they all support it.
The overwhelming majority supported the annexation of Crimea (80-85%), the occupation of Donbass and the full scale invasion. Same with the 2008 invasion of Georgia. And yet you bring the people you know?
For Latvia to be their home, they would need to learn Latvian language and be part of Latvian culture as opposed to supporting Putin and imperialism more broadly. You can’t call a place your home when your loyalties lie to a regime that wants to destroy the country you allegedly call home.
What an interesting interpretation of the first paper. It pretty clearly states that preference falsification is at around 10% with support for the full scale invasion going from 75% (direct polling) to 65% (list experiment).
This is complete bullshit that directly contradicts the findings of the paper. The authors even explicitly state that due to their methodology they believe that the true level of support is higher than 65% even when accounting for preference falsification.
List experiments have issues, any methodology does. But when multiple quantitative methodologies and qualitative research show the same findings, you can’t just bring up “plenty of inaccuracies of its own”.
Did we read the same paper? It’s a pretty damning picture of even those who are not aggressively pro-imperialist genocide. I don’t see what getting tired or not getting has to do with anything. They still support the russian army (that send cruise missiles into children’s cancer hospitals) and in principle they are OK with killings and destruction as long as it benefits them.
This is great example of supremacist russian thinking. It perfect aligns with notion that a strong majority of russians are genocidal imperialist (while not necessarily open stating this).
Let me translate:
“We want to keep 20% of Ukraine [and attack again later], because of “world peace”, we all want “world peace”, right?”
“Show respect to us russians, this is nothing. If you don’t show us respect we will fuck you up!”
“Russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now” - Typical russian victimhood. They are always the victims in any situation!
“and if we can influence them in a friendly way, we should, because animosity clearly doesn’t help” - There is not a single example in recent history of russians doing any type of good faith actions in the geopolitical sphere. On the contrary, a recognition that a strong majority of russians are genocidal imperialists, that they do not believe in human rights (beyond using the concept for manipulation and lies) and they support authoritarianism (in their own country, but in others too) is the only way forward.
Authors clearly stated that the result can be inaccurate and some percentage of Russians may not answer honestly even under such conditions, and in conclusions, they only ended up confirming some people do seemingly hide their true opinions (although the extent of it may vary as the studied group was not representative of entire Russian population and was taken from Toloka, a place attracting specific demographic not fully representative of general Russian population).
It sure is important to know Latvian language, but for that they already have Latvian language tests for those coming into Latvian citizenship. They can, however, hold any culture they want, while respecting Latvian law and basic customs. Same applies to anyone anywhere, including any minorities of Russia or Ukraine. In any case, trying to erase Russian identity is not the answer, which is obvious to legislators outside the country.
Did I say anything about borders? You literally made this up. When I say I want peace, honestly, I don’t give a single damn where the border will be - where it is now, or where it has originally been, or anything in between. I want for two countries, both of which are my homes, mind you, to stop putting their men in the meat grinder. And I know plenty of people on both sides of the Russo-Ukrainian frontline share my sentiment.
But attacking Russians on the Internet and excluding them from everywhere further radicalizes them, leaves them bitter to the outside world, which can lead them to believe y’all really are the enemies to fight against. By alienating Russians, such people just feed into Putin’s narrative that the world is full of hostiles. This has nothing to do with victimhood or imperialism - this is basic human psychology, and it would work exactly the same anywhere else.
I strongly wish Russian aggression would stop, I care for it with all my heart. Again, my close ones are in fear of an attack as we speak. But I also happen to see the perspective of everyday Russians - something that most of those judging never get to see or even consider, naively thinking that they are the “punishers” for incorrect behavior, and that more of that will lead to a “child” getting to learn good behavior. No - slowly, but surely you simply raise bitterness and become an enemy. And they won’t get themselves to blame, and they will march with their wraith. Not on you. On my people. My grandmother. My uncle. My brother. His wife. I could just never talk about those things, present myself as a Ukrainian (after all, I am one) and go about my life, but too much is at stake for me to stay silent when y’all are doing the stupidest shit you can.
You’re lying about the authors conclusions. They explicitly stated that the support was higher than 65% due to their methodology. And they did clearly state that preference falsification is a mere ~10%. Therefore their research (like any quantitative research on this topic) supports my statement that the majority of russians are genocidal imperialists as they want to conquer Ukraine and destroy Ukrainian identity.
No, they need to learn the Latvian language at a high level if they want to live there. This is basic component of calling a place your home. You have to some loyalty to your country and not support a genocidal enemy. The fact that russian culture is at least on some level defined by genocidal imperialism is not a problem of the Latvians. This is basic stuff.
Ukraine is not your home. You are a russian, no Ukrainian would try to come up with “war is necessity” word salad or your comical “russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now”. So don’t lie!
You don’t care about borders because you don’t care about the ten of thousands of civilians in russian torture dungeons. We also both know that vast majority of russians are not interested in any kind of real peace. Just like in 2014, the goal is to get some breathing room, then attacks and try and get more territory and exterminate Ukrainian culture in the newly occupied territories. This approach is nearly universally known and (silently) supported by a strong majority of russians.
GTFO with your “on my people”. You defend russian imperialism and colonialism and you dare to imply you have some relation to Ukraine?
Victimhood is a defining element of russian culture. Without it there is no russian “culture”. Conspiracy theories blaming foreign countries for any and all ills are extremely prevalent in russian society. This has been true in the past, this is true today and it will be true in the future.
I don’t understand what you mean by your “punisher” sentence. The vast majority russians already blame everyone but themselves for all their problems. You brought up russophobia as an implicit excuse for russian crimes. Russophobia doesn’t really exist. When a society consist of a strong majority of genocidal imperialists that lack empathy, it is reasonable to see that society as a threat and a problem. This is not rocket science.
Have you ever seen a well known russian (outside a few figures like Novodvorskaya) admit that at least part of the problem lies in russian society at large? I think not … because we both know the role of victimhood among russians.
To develop a russia strategy that works, the world needs to understand that russians will never act in good faith, russians will always play the victim and a strong majority of russians are committed and genuine ethno-racial supremacists that lack empathy.
Alienating russians is a red herring. The only way forward is a sober view of russian culture and methods and an understanding that russia only understand force; you have to treat them like they treat others.
Even if that were true (which is not, read the damn conclusions section), this doesn’t support your emotional notion. And as much as I’d like to share such a simple outrage, it’s not helpful.
It would be weird to see all Russians born in Latvia only support Latvian side of things, just as it would be weird to see each and every Latvian born in Russia supporting Russia.
I never said I see war as necessary, I say many of the people that can be defined as pro-war are not for it because they want to see Ukrainians gone. I personally am anti-war and I call for peace through whatever means necessary, because - surprise surprise - I care about people’s lives and you seemingly don’t. It is curently you who calls for brute force solutions.
And you trying to say my ethnicity is not valid is laughable. Oh yeah, gonna be unborn to my Ukrainian father and forget my entire Ukrainian bloodline. Maybe your cultural shock at facing a Ukrainian who doesn’t immediately call to destroy all Russians is your problem? Then go around and maybe talk to some outside political circlejerks.
Russian culture is independent and beautiful, not defined by anything in particular - just as Ukrainian. You trying to minimize it to “victimhood” or even politics more broadly is an insult to everything good the country has produced - and there is plenty.
The perfect scenario I see is peace talks, and then Ukraine joining NATO. There are talks on the NATO side, but they require Ukraine to leave the current war first. I do think this is the best way forward, as Russian security guarantees are proven not to be trusted.
Seeing any national or ethnic group as “inherently dangerous” is nothing but a way to more abuse, and a common justification for imperialist wars, too. There is no such society in Russia, and seeing it this way is an issue of your perception. But regardless, make peace talks and then invite Ukraine to NATO. Problem solved.
So what you are saying is we should nuke Russia because they are all cartoonishly evil fanatics of genocide.
I never said cartoonishly evil.
The term I used was “genocidal imperialist”. Supporting extermination of Ukrainiain culture, language and identity with the goal of territorial expansion. A belief in ethno-national hierarchy system that sees certain ethnicities/nationalities as inferior and not having the right to self-determination.
Such beliefs have a strong majority support among the russian population (if not overwhelming majority support).
I guess cartoons for adults then. What’s your solution? To me it sounds like dehumanising propaganda that push for indiscriminate extermination…
For you these are cartoons for adults. For those who have deal with russian imperialism, it’s reality.
A tangent of sorts; do you think you would be able to guess the number genocides conducted by the russians since just in the last 100 years? Without doing a web search.
You might be able to count the big ones, but I am curious what do you think your chance of guessing correctly would be?
Note: I don’t know the exact number (I can name a list of course). I am just curious what you think about this thought experiment.
To get to a solution, you need to at least recognize the problem. Things like not engaging in historical revisionism. Not rejecting any and all research findings unless they paint russian society in a way that reflects how you want the world to be.
No I don’t think I would. Other than my ignorance about the facts themselves, there’s the issue that I don’t have a precise definition of genocide in mind.
I’d probably have the best chance by saying 0 and hoping the definition of Genocide is so narrow it doesn’t really apply to shit.
And I’d give me a 30% chance.
Tangent asides, I am under no impression that the Russian Oligarchy now, the Zar before, the URRS in between, has excerted power in oppressive way just like any other country has done and stopped doing only in the face of new ways to accrue power.
And because in all those instances, from China, to the USA, to all of Europe, through history, people were pushed and pulled into believing all sort of crazy stuff, such as “the others” being inferior, evil, a threat or all of the above, I doesn’t really tell me much that the polupation that is subjected to a long lasting propaganda apparatus is affected by such propaganda.
I go as far as doubting I would be able to see past it if myself I was born in that situation.
I wouldn’t be able to answer accurately either.
The definition of genocide is an interesting one. I have a DIY definition that may not be listed in the human rights charts, but has what I would argue a rather lucid quality to it.
“Actions against you specifically, your immediate and extended family and your broader ethno-national group that make you wonder if the russians want to destroy you.”
On some level, I do agree with what you’re saying about the role of oppression and propaganda.
But how do you know this is the primary cause? What if it’s a choice the russians want to make?
It’s unfortunately not unheard of for whole nations (i.e. close to or at overwhelming majority support level) to support and engage in genocidal imperialism. Arguably, one would only continue at this path if they have the benefit of people white-washing their actions, no?
The reason I brought up choice earlier is that I do not believe russians are “inherently” genocidal or that they are not capable of change. This would be a ridiculous argument. I do believe that they do want to change, they like being genocidal imperialists.
And they will continue to do so until there is pushback (they get treated like they treat others) and less people buy into their white-washing propaganda.
This is not a cartoon for adults.
Framed in this way (assuming a population completely corrupted by propaganda) it becomes a matter of responsibility, not unlike what we already faced in germany.
I believe the proper course of action, in this instance and for posterity alike, is focusing and who is knowingly engaging in propaganda, and not who is being fed a false narrative.
It’s a broad answer and it leaves very little room for proportionate retaliation, but it’s the only approach, I believe, that foster progress and rightfully frame the issue of division and conflict in a tangible cause and effect dialectic.
If we now say, “Russian has let themselves be convinced to behave like monsters, therefore we must tread them as ones”, all future wars can and will be framed in this way. If we focus and the root causes, if we condemn manipulation of information, uneven education as among the greatest, most unacceptable, criminal act, I can see a world where at the very least, if you behave like a monster that’s out of your own “disposition”.