While the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was clear from the start, the objective has been nebulous. After over a year of fighting, the likely direction of this war is coming into focus.
The problem is Russia can be a pariah state and survive. They have natural resources which is all you really need to survive. They also inherited the Soviet Union’s military industry, thought not in it’s full capacity. The West might tire of of supporting Ukraine, it might not, but Russia doesn’t depend on others’ support, they can produce their own weapons. Not in sufficient quantities to conquer the whole of Ukraine, but in sufficient quantities to bog down the war for years to come.
Russia absolutely depends on global supply chains to produce anything more sophisticated than a grenade and their access to advanced technology is increasingly limited to smuggling. Their military-industrial complex is suffering unprecedented brain-drain alongside a demographic collapse. If the west maintains anything like their current level of military support for Ukraine over the next few years Russia will have no choice but to withdraw.
The problem is Russia can be a pariah state and survive. They have natural resources which is all you really need to survive. They also inherited the Soviet Union’s military industry, thought not in it’s full capacity. The West might tire of of supporting Ukraine, it might not, but Russia doesn’t depend on others’ support, they can produce their own weapons. Not in sufficient quantities to conquer the whole of Ukraine, but in sufficient quantities to bog down the war for years to come.
Russia absolutely depends on global supply chains to produce anything more sophisticated than a grenade and their access to advanced technology is increasingly limited to smuggling. Their military-industrial complex is suffering unprecedented brain-drain alongside a demographic collapse. If the west maintains anything like their current level of military support for Ukraine over the next few years Russia will have no choice but to withdraw.
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