Sure on a global scale, but on a more macro level, the war on drugs failed because people want to buy and consume drugs… if there is no legal, regulated, safe method to buy them then the black market will fill that gap… same under rationing, same under prohibition, same with drugs and in the future cigarettes…!

Police bust into a building through the windows, swinging from the chandeliers:

“Ha ha! Zis is a raid! En garde naives…!”

Fight music and clashing of swords starts.

Sit down officer this ain’t your jurisdiction

At what point, if ever, in Russian politics has self-canibalisation been a problem for them?

Putin has thrown down against Prigozhin, brought Alltwen arms of State to bare… and allowed him to walk away…?

If you think he’s blundered I would caution about underestimating him, a brutal, ruthless bastard… for sure, but not a fool…

If he was a fool he wouldn’t have got to the position he has at Wagner in the first place…!

Fair points all in.

The long and the short will hang on wether Prigozhin has loyalists installed at the head of FSB, Ministery of Interior, and Ministery of Defence…

If not, It’ll rank amongst the biggest blunders in Russian political history, and Prigozhin will be dead in short order.

If yes, Prigozhin basically is in control of the Russian Federation in all but name.

Nah, if Prigozhin doesn’t have loyalists installed at FSB, Interior, and Defence he’s a dead man. I guarantee you he knows this. You don’t get into a position of power in Russia without knowing that. His lead elements were holding an Operational Rally Point just outside of Moscow when they just… turned around and a promise…? From Putin…?

No chance, Prigozhin may be a ruthless, cutthroat sociopath but he’s not an idiot. Add to that Putin called him out as a terrorist, a mutineers, an enemy of the state, for Putin to U-turn makes him look weak. Sure, the leverage is there but there’s no way you make him look weak and just walkway… not AND survive for very long…

Yeah, He has to have his people installed at Defence, FSB and Interior, and at that point he’s in charge of the Russian Federation in all but name.

“When you play the game of thrones, you either win or you die.”

I am very sceptical of this. Lukashenko brokered a deal? He’s a Putin puppet, why would Prigozhin cut a deal with him? What would that deal look like? Does Prigozhin become head of the MoD or Putins designated successor? He’s right there outside Moscow, he has the leverage, why would he blink?

Putin called him a traitor, an enemy of the state, why would Putin back down from that point, he already looks weak, why look weaker via a U-turn? Prigozhin must know he’s a dead man if he backs down, he knows the play book, why would he trust in the deal?

Was the whole thing a psy-op to give Putin an out? Was the voice recording that is the ultimate source of all this a Russian State propaganda play? Is it a play by Wagner to buy time to consolidate his forces before he moves on Moscow? But then, he has to be the one to move fast and hard…

Whatever is going on, we don’t know. Next 5-24hrs will be key.