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Cake day: March 4th, 2025

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  • https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/991

    But when asked about support or opposition to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the territories occupied in 1967, i.e. defining the borders of the state and without linking it to the two-state solution, support rises to 59% (60% in the West Bank and 59% in the Gaza Strip), while 37% do not support the establishment of such a state.

    Support for a two-state solution is usually linked to public assessment of the feasibility of such a solution and the chances for a Palestinian state. Today, 57% (compared to 65% three months ago) believe that the two-state solution is no longer practical due to settlement expansion, but 39% (compared to 34% three months ago) believe it remains practical. Moreover, 69% believe that the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel in the next five years are slim or non-existent and 30% believe the chances are medium or high.

    When asked about the public’s support or opposition to specific political measures to break the deadlock, 57% supported joining more international organizations, 45% supported resorting to unarmed popular resistance, 51% supported a return to confrontations and armed intifada, 49% supported the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority, and 22% supported abandoning the two-state solution and demanding one state for Palestinians and Israelis. Three months ago, 63% supported a return to confrontations and an armed intifada, 49% supported unarmed popular resistance, 62% supported the dissolution of the PA, and 22% supported abandoning the two-state solution in favor of a one-state solution.

    We asked about the public support for three possible solutions to the conflict: the two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, the solution of a confederation between the two states of Palestine and Israel, and a one-state solution in which the Jews and Palestinians live with equality, 51% (49% in the West Bank and 54% in the Gaza Strip) prefer the two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, while 19% (14% in the West Bank and 27% in the Gaza Strip) prefer a confederation between two states. 10% (11% in the West Bank and 9% in the Gaza Strip) prefer the establishment of a single state with equality between the two sides. 21% said they did not know or did not want to answer.

    As you can clearly see, the answer percentage depends a lot on what question is asked specifically.

    Two state solution also depends a lot on the details. The biggest issue is the so called right of return, which would permit millions of descendants of Palestinian refugees to immigrate into Israel proper. That’s of course unacceptable to Israel.


  • If you directly asked Palestinians and Israelis if they want peace, the vast majority would answer either yes. The conditions of what’s considered a viable peace is different.

    The two state solution was favored among Israelis during the peace process up to the second intifada. Afterwards an increasing number of Israelis rejected two states as unrealistic because they didn’t see a willing partner on the Palestinian side. Put it another way, many Israelis don’t believe a Palestinian state would actually bring peace. The withdrawal from Gaza and the continued attacks on Israel from Gaza over the last decades is seen as an example of that.












  • The Knesset also contains people opposed to the war. I don’t see how such an attack would bring a military advantage.

    https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule8

    In so far as objects are concerned, military objectives are limited to those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action and whose partial or total destruction, capture or neutralization, in the circumstances ruling at the time, offers a definite military advantage.

    Killing Hamas civilian leaders in charge of internal security, meaning they also hunt Israeli spies, would bring an obvious military advantage.

    Attacking the Israeli defense ministry or border police, the prime minister, or the cabinet could be justified as giving a military advantage.

    Now, I’m not sure if civilian leadership of the armed forces count as combatants or not. However an attack should be covered by the above. IANAL of course.

    Don’t get me wrong. Israel certainly commits war crimes, I’m not sure this was one.



  • Yes, their numbers are the best available. The health ministry has adjusted and corrected their numbers at times though. They increase the total number reported quickly just from media reports. Over time they document individual deaths, identify bodies, and so on. So there’s a constant mismatch of reported deaths snd documented the deaths. Over time this gap closes though.

    Deaths from starvation are included. They amounted to two dozen or so, last time I checked.

    Bad health care conditions of course increase the likelihood of deaths from preexisting chronic diseases, treatable diseases or injury, and so on. So the elderly and the very young are more susceptible to dying than during peacetime. AFAIK this excess mortality isn’t typically counted towards civilian casualties in wars.

    So far there have been no epidemics documented, that resulted in high numbers of deaths. The Polio epidemic has one documented case and resulted in a ceasefire with a big vaccination drive.

    So these estimates of 180,000 are not backed up by hard data as of now.

    The health ministry does not distinguish between combatant and civilian deaths. Additionally people shot by Hamas for espionage/treason or other crimes are not listed separately.