I don’t get the idea of “hopium”, yes I hope they collapse. It doesn’t bring me any kind of like euphoria to do so, and I’d prefer if you didn’t make comments on my psychology, unless you are some kind of psychologist or have an advanced degree in psychology, it seems problematic and ableist and also you don’t fucking know me; but sure I can take a whack at supporting evidence, as an exercise:

A quick google search returned this article, geared toward investors, that outlines many issues with Google’s current monetization strategy.

https://the-cfo.io/2024/07/25/the-hidden-red-flags-in-googles-most-recent-earnings/

1. Google’s Copilot feature is a stinker

The company’s CFO, Ruth Porat, hinted at the financial implications of this shift, stating, “As we invest to support our highest growth opportunities, we remain committed to creating investment capacity with our ongoing work to durably re-engineer our cost base.”

This statement suggests that Google is bracing for a period of higher costs and potentially lower margins as it transitions to more AI-intensive search capabilities. The challenge lies in maintaining profitability while delivering the advanced features necessary to fend off emerging competitors.

Moreover, the monetization model for AI-powered search remains unclear. Traditional search relies heavily on sponsored links and ads, but integrating these seamlessly into AI-generated responses presents a significant challenge. Google may need to explore alternative revenue models, such as subscriptions or premium features, which could face resistance from users accustomed to free search services.

Problems with google’s implementation of AI are documented here:

https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/06/googles-ai-overviews-misunderstand-why-people-use-google/

https://www.wired.com/story/google-ai-overview-search-issues/

https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/15/24154808/ai-chatgpt-google-gemini-microsoft-copilot-hallucination-wrong

The CEO also said they cant do anything about ai hallucinations.

https://futurism.com/the-byte/ceo-google-ai-hallucinations

So the feature that is affecting their overall profitability, that is forcing them to make dramatic quality of life changes doesnt even work and can’t be fixed, according to Google.

2. lagging profits from youtube, a historically high performer

YouTube, historically a strong performer in Alphabet’s portfolio, showed signs of vulnerability in Q2 2024. While YouTube ad revenues grew by 13% year-over-year to $8.7 billion, this growth rate lagged behind that of Google Search, indicating potential challenges in the video platform’s monetization strategy.

Brand advertising, typically a strong driver for YouTube, showed weakness. Schindler noted that YouTube’s growth was “driven by growth in brand, as well as direct response,” but the emphasis on direct response advertising suggests that big-budget brand campaigns may be pulling back.

This shift could be indicative of broader changes in the advertising landscape. As consumers increasingly use platforms like TikTok and Instagram for product discovery, advertisers may be reallocating their budgets away from traditional YouTube ads.

Furthermore, YouTube faces challenges in its content strategy. The company’s investment in YouTube Shorts, its short-form video offering, has yet to fully pay off. Pichai mentioned that “views of YouTube Shorts on connected TVs more than doubled last year,” but failed to provide concrete monetization figures for this format.

Youtube is more aggressively pushing ads to users, and the price of their subscription based services continues to squeeze consumers.

https://www.theverge.com/2024/9/23/24252145/youtube-premium-price-increase-europe-asia-middle-east-south-america

https://www.howtogeek.com/youtube-is-adding-even-more-ads/

Far from the only game in town now, competitors like tik tok and insta reels have forced Google to make changes to the platform in order to stay competitive. These changes have yet to pay off for google within this competitive environment, and the company can no longer afford to develop loss leading tech like in previous stages of the business.

As Google continues to limit access to its platform to users who use adblocking or other services such as NewPipe or Invidious to view content, it would be a stretch to say that these dedicated and tech savvy users will just view ads to continue to use the platform. On the contrary, one can just not watch youtube, and it will be an overall improvement to one’s own wellbeing. As ads and subscriptions increase, an inevitability for a platform that must remain profitable quarter on quarter, year on year, I think it’s safe to say that users will just go elsewhere for content, driving away advertisers.

3. Further problems with AI

Furthermore, Google’s AI strategy appears somewhat scattered. The company is pursuing multiple AI initiatives across various product lines, from search to cloud to workspace applications. This broad approach, while potentially covering all bases, may also dilute focus and resources, potentially allowing more specialized competitors to gain advantages in specific areas.

Google, in an effort to preempt the market is spreading itself too thin across too many market segments too cautiously. You said that Google “Has billions and isnt going anywhere” but actually this might be a huge disadvantage, as smaller competitors able to be more dynamic and interruptive can take big chunks out of the profitability of Google, who has to remain conservative while staying on top of the latest tech. A tech, which by all accounts, doesnt even work very well.

4. What else is there?

Cloud services are too competitive. Features like Google Maps, which Google hasnt figured out how to make profitable, and can’t make subscription based while good free versions also exist, the same of which being true for other google services such as workspaces and the features contianed within, will continue to get worse as these will be the first areas to receive cuts in staff and investment as profitability is continually squeezed.

5. Conclusion

At its peak, Yahoo had a value of around $200B adjusted. in 2016 it sold to Verizon for 4.8 billion, and is likely worth even less now though exact numbers are hard to find. Google is no longer in their growth phase, and they have failed to monopolize the tech industry in most segments, other than (arguably) search. They will continue to struggle to make profits, leaving them with three distinct options: sell sections of the business, serve more ads, cut expenses such as developers. each of these options are merely survival strategies, and not a way for a tech company to continually grow. It’s my prediction that Alphabet will become little more than an aggressive patent troll, and Google will start to shrink until it becomes small enough to be acquired by a competitor. Alphabet’s current valuation is about $2 Trillion, which aint nothing. this isnt going to happen overnight. but fewer users means less advertisers, less advertisers means less investment, and less investment means death. Maybe the timeline is more or less long, idk if it will take 5 years, or 10 or 20. but it is an inivitability due to the limitations of our economic system and the constrictions that a very large companies with a large amount of non-finance capital are forced to face. Any number of things could happen to severely damage google’s ability to continue to do business, but what they might do to innovate is unclear if not an impossible task altogether.

https://www.axios.com/2021/05/04/verizon-aol-yahoo-valuations